A half-year in parses

December 11: I now have the time to add some comments for all the parser output I posted last week.

Treasure and Tribulations BCNM, 1st attempt (July 11)

Melee Damage
Player            Melee Dmg   Hit/Miss  M.Low/Hi    M.Avg
NIN/WAR                 470      38/85      4/18    11.62


Spell Damage
Player                 Spell Dmg   Spell %  #Spells  S.Low/Hi     S.Avg
NIN/WAR                      914   64.55 %       29      4/44     31.52
- Doton: Ni                  164   17.94 %        4     40/44     41.00
- Huton: Ni                  140   15.32 %        4     20/40     35.00
- Hyoton: Ni                 200   21.88 %        6     20/40     33.33
- Katon: Ni                  110   12.04 %        5     10/40     22.00
- Raiton: Ni                 196   21.44 %        5     36/40     39.20
- Suiton: Ni                 104   11.38 %        5      4/40     20.80

Comments: it certainly is more palatable to fight a mimic (Small Box) straight up rather than hope you pick the right treasure chest. Comments on FFXIclopedia recommend sushi "except if you have really good gear," but melee accuracy against this mimic was a joke. I felt better off using the "wheel" lest the fight take 25 minutes.

Treasure and Tribulations BCNM, 2nd attempt (July 12)

Melee Damage
Player            Melee Dmg   Hit/Miss  M.Low/Hi    M.Avg
NIN/WAR                 214      20/78      5/13     8.47


Spell Damage
Player                 Spell Dmg   Spell %  #Spells  S.Low/Hi     S.Avg
NIN/WAR                     1008   80.45 %       36      4/44     28.00
- Doton: Ni                  115   11.41 %        5      5/40     23.00
- Huton: Ni                  190   18.85 %        6     10/40     31.67
- Hyoton: Ni                 220   21.83 %        7     20/40     31.43
- Katon: Ni                  164   16.27 %        7      4/40     23.43
- Raiton: Ni                 145   14.38 %        6      5/40     24.17
- Suiton: Ni                 174   17.26 %        5     10/44     34.80

Comments: more of the same (Small Box again), mainly to corroborate the hideous evasion of these mimics. I am curious whether there is any difference in hit rate targeting the larger boxes instead.

Evasion vs. Water Leaper (August 1)

Attacks Against:
Player           Total   Avoided   Avoid %
NIN/THF            253       247   97.63 %


Standard Defenses
Player           M.Evade  M.Evade %   Shadow  Shadow %   Parry  Parry %
NIN/THF              148    58.73 %       93   93.94 %       6   5.77 %

Comments: I trot out the thief support job to maximize my evasion. (I've seen "Evasion Bonus II" job trait from thief to be both +22 and +23 total.) This may be indispensable for something like Fenrir (I may try soloing it again now that Reraise effects can't be dispelled) but for mundane things not so much. Trading 12 or 13 evasion for all the abilities available to DNC37 (dancer also gets an Evasion Bonus trait) seems like a no-brainer for menial tasks, if I can ever bother to finishing leveling it.

Evasion vs. Goblin Slaughtermen, Temenos - Northern Tower (August 8)

Attacks Against:
Player           Total   Avoided   Avoid %
NIN/THF            241       234   97.10 %


Standard Defenses
Player           M.Evade  M.Evade %   Shadow  Shadow %   Parry  Parry %
NIN/THF              155    65.13 %       71   91.03 %       8   9.64 %

Comments: Ninja soloing for AF+1 in Temenos seems "common" enough for those who have the patience and adequate equipment. I've tended to err toward mixing both haste and evasion if only to speed up the process just a little, so even without maximum evasion, one can still evade a fair amount of attacks. (At least I assume that was the case for this, one of my last Temenos runs.) Sadly, in the past I have actually timed out mainly because of mediocre DD output, but it doesn't really matter to me whether I finish in 20 minutes or 28 minutes.

Enfeebling Despot (October 10)

BLM/RDM
Debuff      # Times   # Successful   # No Effect   % Successful
Bind             26             21             0        80.77 %
Gravity           8              8             0       100.00 %
Poison II        12             11             0        91.67 %

RDM
Debuff      # Times   # Successful   # No Effect   % Successful
Bind              3              2             0        66.67 %
Gravity           6              6             0       100.00 %

Comments: I had such extraordinary success (by my standards) binding Despot that I feel this is an anomaly. I am pretty sure my enfeebling magic skill a few months ago was 269, which isn't good for BLM. Although binding isn't necessary for soloing Despot as a black mage (yes, I didn't solo it here), it can give you a little slack.

Pahluwan Khazagand effect on crit rate (October 16)

Melee Damage
Player            Hit/Miss   M.Avg  #Crit     Crit%
WAR/NIN             459/39  143.43     40    8.71 %
SAM/WAR (Askar)    581/184  140.84     54    9.29 %
MNK72/WAR36       1270/283   52.96    148   11.65 %

Total Experience : 19012
Number of Fights : 100
Start Time       : 10:06:51 AM
End Time         : 11:07:50 AM
Party Duration   : 1:00:58
Total Fight Time : 1:35:08
Avg Time/Fight   : 36.59 seconds
Avg Fight Length : 57.08 seconds
XP/Fight         : 190.12
XP/Minute        : 311.77
XP/Hour          : 18706.50

Comments: I am no fan of the "Mamool Ja north" merit camp, but whatever it takes. I even included the experience summary to show that the exp rate was great (by my standards). Also, I noticed that the monk was wearing the Pahluwan body piece. I have seen bandied about the claim that the crit bonus on Pahluwan is "broken," and I believe this nonsense originated from this idiotic post from 2006. Such fuckers don't realize that the margin of error associated with the sample crit rate in question, even for 718 total hits, will be fairly wide. For example, a 95% Clopper-Pearson interval for the crit rate with Pahluwan body is (0.1366717, 0.1920368), so I wouldn't be talking shit about how the body makes the crit rate "worse."

Going back to the parser output, it seems to confirm the notion that critical hit rate is minimized at 5% (9% with 4 merits). This is to be expected without a sufficient amount of dexterity at this camp. If the monk's base crit rate before equipment was indeed 9% (assuming the monk had all the merits), then there is strong evidence that Pahluwan body does have an effect (trivial conclusion since the item description explicitly states there is one). As for the magnitude of the effect, a 95% CI for the crit rate bonus is (0.00939805, 0.04546965), so I am 95% confident that the true bonus is somewhere in that interval. So much for crit rate being "broken" (not that the effect isn't weak).

Enfeebling Aura Statues

≥ 82 (October 23)

BLM/RDM
Debuff      # Times   # Successful   # No Effect   % Successful
Bind             92             52             0        56.52 %
Dispel            1              0             1         0.00 %
Gravity         234            184             1        78.63 %
Sleep            34             22             0        64.71 %
Sleep II        120             94             0        78.33 %
Sleepga II        1              1             0       100.00 %
Stun             40             39             0        97.50 %

≥ 25 (October 24)

BLM/RDM
Debuff      # Times   # Successful   # No Effect   % Successful
Bind             11              8             0        72.73 %
Gravity          80             62             0        77.50 %
Sleep            11              7             0        63.64 %
Sleep II         26             24             0        92.31 %
Stun             22             22             0       100.00 %

≥ 9 (November 13)

BLM/RDM
Debuff      # Times   # Successful   # No Effect   % Successful
Bind              6              4             0        66.67 %
Gravity          25             20             0        80.00 %
Sleep II          5              5             0       100.00 %
Stun              8              8             0       100.00 %

Comments: Now that I have some working hypothesis on the relationship between magic skill and magic "hit rate" (again, to make a distinction between a "lack of resist" rate and the magic accuracy attribute), I am going to put it to the test against Aura Statues once I reach 289 enfeebling magic skill. (Merciful Cape is absolutely out of the question as I am not that masochistic; Enfeebling Torque is overpriced and obtaining Wizard's Coat +1 is contingent on luck getting the materials.) Oddly, the resist rate estimates seem consistent only for gravity. I'll have to look into it. Again, I wouldn't be surprised that a level correction plays some role.

Direct magic damage to Genbu (October 26)

Bio II
    3:   17
   35:    1
Burst II
 1067:    1
Thundaga III
  532:    1
Thunder IV
   73:    1
   99:    3
  199:    1
  398:    3
  795:    1
  798:   12

Comments: I seemed to have pretty good success damaging Genbu this time.

Dancer (lv14-15) EXP/hour (November 7)

Total Experience : 5845
Number of Fights : 82
Start Time       : 3:07:05 PM
End Time         : 4:17:42 PM
Party Duration   : 1:10:37
Total Fight Time : 1:43:29
Avg Time/Fight   : 51.68 seconds
Avg Fight Length : 75.73 seconds
XP/Fight         : 71.28
XP/Minute        : 82.76
XP/Hour          : 4965.81

Mob Listing
Mob                        Base XP   Number   Avg Fight Time
Akbaba                         ---        1             0.00
Canyon Crawler                  80        1            35.00
Canyon Rarab                    60        2            24.50
Canyon Rarab                    65        5            29.01
Canyon Rarab                    70        9            40.56
Canyon Rarab                    75        4            49.29
Goblin Digger                   80        1          1:33.09
Goblin Thug                     60        1         37:07.29
Goblin Thug                     65        1            35.00
Goblin Tinkerer                 80        1            54.01
Goblin Tinkerer                 90        1          1:00.04
Killer Bee                      70        6            36.41
Killer Bee                      75        5            38.22
Killer Bee                      80        4          2:37.06
Pygmaioi                        65        3            34.68
Pygmaioi                        70        3            50.68
Pygmaioi                        75        7            45.59
Pygmaioi                        80        2          3:35.61
Strolling Sapling               65        8            33.02
Strolling Sapling               70       10            42.63
Strolling Sapling               75        1             6.00
Yagudo Acolyte                  60        2            19.51
Yagudo Persecutor               90        2            42.54
Yagudo Piper                    90        1          1:01.01
Yagudo Scribe                   60        1            13.01
Yagudo Scribe                   65        1            10.00

Comments: I've become progressively less patient with leveling subjobs even though the last few have been easy to solo (against goblin pets), from samurai to dark knight to red mage and, now, dancer. I just don't see myself leveling another job as my playing time wanes, especially considering no job other than dancer will let me spend 70 minutes mowing down every EP nonstop for almost 5k exp/hr.

Do the math

Recently I fought Water Leaper (a pugil) in Sea Serpent Grotto for the Impulse Drive polearm weapon skill, and I took a gamble by fighting it near its spawn point, hoping that the nearby mobs wouldn't wander in my direction. Unfortunately, with about 1/5 of Water Leaper's HP to go, I eventually got aggro from a crab. I was still game to continue on since the crab was EP, but not long after I "reeled" in a nearby sahagin, which finally led to my demise. (It turns out that I-13 on the first map is a good place to fight it provided you sneak pull Water Leaper to that location after killing the sahagin that would otherwise block your way there.)

Since the fight itself is not interesting I'll instead use some probability to round out this filler post.

Each mob's attack round can be treated as an independent Bernoulli trial with some fixed probability of "success" (any result that does not result in my evading the attack). In this situation I could model an "effective evasion rate," or the probability that I evade all attacks after all mobs involved complete one attack round. (I'm not including parrying since its contribution is negligible.)

The pugil's hit rate, which I estimated at about .50 from a parse, is higher than that of the EP mobs. Still, independent events are involved, so my effective evasion rate with the pugil and the crab involved is estimated to be (.80)(.50) = .40. With all three mobs involved, my effective evasion rate is estimated to be (.80)(.80)(.50) = .32. 32% is not that much worse than 40%, is it?

Of course, a 32% "effective" evasion rate is misleading because even though the probability of getting hit at least once (or losing at least one shadow) after a series of attack rounds is .68, the probability of getting hit once (or losing one shadow) is .48, and the probability of getting hit two or more times (or losing 2-3 shadows) is an uncomfortable .20.

Barring a double attack, a pugil alone can only land one hit per attack round at worst. But the contribution of the other mobs is what allowed my shadows to be depleted so rapidly that there wasn't much of a chance to survive.

Here is a case where probability computations don't really belie a situation where it's obviously futile to take on three mobs at once, where one is IT and even though the others are EP. But still, one should be wary of all kinds of bullshit mathematical sophistries that are often left unchecked on FFXI-related forums. You might be able to call a thief on his BS claims that he was able to "solo" a bunch of IT mobs all at once, though.