"Naked" Aspir and Aspir II at 400 dark magic skill

At 400 dark magic skill and with no Aspir-enhancing equipment/traits, unresisted Aspir I appears to have a maximum of 160 MP (actually observed maximum: 160 MP) and minimum of 80 MP. (The two lowest observed values, 74 MP and 76 MP, may reflect a resisted state.)

At 400 dark magic skill and with no Aspir-enhancing equipment/traits, unresisted Aspir II appears to have a maximum of 240 MP (actually observed maximum: 238 MP) and minimum of 120 MP (actually observed minimum: 121 MP).

Consistent with previous results, the variability of MP drained with Aspir II is higher than that with Aspir I, which appears to be a result of the range of possible values increasing as the maximum increases. (The maximum of Aspir II, for a given level of dark magic skill, is higher than that of Aspir I.)

Dot plot

Raw data (first column observed MP drained, second Aspir I or Aspir II, third order of data collection)

107 1 1
184 2 2
118 1 3
121 2 4
120 1 5
238 2 6
127 1 7
172 2 8
141 1 9
142 2 10
159 1 11
149 2 12
155 1 13
227 2 14
106 1 15
190 2 16
87 1 17
191 2 18
101 1 19
209 2 20
114 1 21
144 2 22
93 1 23
166 2 24
132 1 25
165 2 26
136 1 27
161 2 28
74 1 29
228 2 30
155 1 31
178 2 32
156 1 33
174 2 34
97 1 35
192 2 36
111 1 37
126 2 38
132 1 39
211 2 40
126 1 41
213 2 42
145 1 43
137 2 44
95 1 45
176 2 46
118 1 47
127 2 48
147 1 49
227 2 50
108 1 51
141 2 52
133 1 53
121 2 54
126 1 55
129 2 56
140 1 57
124 2 58
106 1 59
141 2 60
160 1 61
157 2 62
84 1 63
162 2 64
138 1 65
179 2 66
143 1 67
168 2 68
121 1 69
122 2 70
87 1 71
199 2 72
156 1 73
211 2 74
112 1 75
127 2 76
156 1 77
122 2 78
132 1 79
212 2 80
76 1 81
157 2 82
100 1 83
198 2 84
101 1 85
201 2 86
107 1 87
144 2 88
93 1 89
160 2 90
103 1 91
162 2 92
118 1 93
215 2 94
159 1 95
137 2 96
89 1 97
205 2 98
133 1 99
131 2 100

Drain, Aspir, and Aspir II after the update.

Previous posts have shown that increasing dark magic skill beyond 300 did not increase Drain potency prior to the September 8, 2010 version update, but the version update details state that "maximum values have been increased for certain enhancing magic, dark magic, and blue magic spells whose potency is commensurate with casting skill." The following summarizes the results of checking the potency of Drain, Aspir, and Aspir II without any equipment or other factors that "enhance" any of these spells other than equipment with dark magic skill bonuses.

Raw data is available upon request or I may just post them in the comments below after a week if there is no feedback.

Drain

The distribution of Drain potency (unresisted Drain values) was checked at both 303 dark magic skill (my current dark magic skill level without any equipment) and 340 dark magic skill (with this equipment) on Zvahl Fortalices in Castle Zvahl Baileys (S). The following dot plots show an obvious increase in the maximum value of Drain. Although I was unable to check the distribution of Drain at 300 dark magic skill, it seems that the change in the maximum Drain was done merely by removing the "cap" on increasing it with dark magic skill beyond the 300 level, holding all other potency-increasing factors (maximum-increasing factors) fixed. (In this case, what was fixed was that there were no other factors "present" to affect my results.)



Previously, I gave a formula for the maximum Drain as a function of dark magic skill (without any other potency-affecting factors) as (skill) + 20. The following summary of the minimum and maximum suggests that this formula does not apply beyond 300 skill.

                        ·--------·---------·--------·------------·
                        |    n   |   Min   |   Max  |   Median   |
·-----------------------·--------·---------·--------·------------·
|   Drain (303 skill)   |   60   |   170   |   321  |    247.5   |
|   Drain (340)         |   60   |   173   |   345  |    248.5   |
·-----------------------·--------·---------·--------·------------·

For now, the maximum observed Drain without any other maximum-increasing factors present (or, for shorthand, "naked") is 345.

I do not have access to Drain II so I cannot check it at this time.

Aspir and Aspir II

I actually checked the distributions of Aspir and Aspir II (not omitting resisted values) before that for Drain, and I collected data at both 300 and 302 dark magic skill (on two separate occasions), thinking I had done so only at 300 without realizing later I had skilled up beyond 300. I was lazy and pooled the data, but it is straightforward to see that, similarly to the Drain maximum, the increase in the Aspir (and Aspir II) maximum was done merely by removing the "cap" on increasing it with dark magic skill beyond the 300 level. I checked at 339 dark magic skill with this equipment set. All data collection was done on Stone Eaters in North Gustaberg (S).



I had no idea what the distribution of Aspir II was like compared to Aspir before the update. The previous image shows that, at least after the September 2010 update, the variability of Aspir II (controlling for resist level) is higher than that of Aspir (no reason to assume anything about this beforehand) even though the maximum Aspir II is higher (as expected) as shown in the above image and following summary statistics table:

                            ·--------·---------·--------·------------·
                            |    n   |   Min   |   Max  |   Median   |
·---------------------------·--------·---------·--------·------------·
|   Aspir (300/302 skill)   |   50   |    60   |   120  |     85.0   |
|   Aspir (339)             |   50   |    50   |   135  |     95.5   |
|   Aspir II (300/302)      |   50   |    83   |   180  |    130.5   |
|   Aspir II (339)          |   50   |    56   |   202  |    152.0   |
·---------------------------·--------·---------·--------·------------·

Previously, I gave a formula for the maximum Aspir as a function of dark magic skill (without any other potency-affecting factors) as (skill/3) + 20 (decimals truncated where necessary). The above data shows that this formula does not really apply above 300 dark magic skill. I make no attempt to suggest a formula for the maximum of Aspir II at this time.

The maximum "naked" Aspir observed is 135, and the maximum observed Aspir II is 202.

Summary

Announced in the September 2010 version update, the increase in the maximum Drain, Aspir, and Aspir II values seems to be the result of allowing their potency to increase by increasing dark magic skill beyond 300, holding all other maximum-increasing factors fixed. Before the update, the Drain and Aspir maximum did not increase beyond 300 dark magic skill.

The variability of Aspir II values (controlling for resist level) is higher than that for Aspir values.

I observed a maximum "naked" Drain of 345 (340 dark magic skill), a maximum "naked" Aspir of 135 (339 skill) and maximum "naked" Aspir II of 202 (339 skill). The actual maxima are likely higher and are likely to be attained only by increasing dark magic skill further (well above 340).

Aspir and Drain modeling: an incomplete picture

Earlier, I made some bold statements (at least by my standards) about the distribution of unresisted values of Drain and Aspir. I proposed a model from which I can make explicit, testable predictions.

Specifically, I wanted to see if the model holds at 114 dark magic skill, which can be attained by subbing /DRK on any job without any native dark magic skill (in my case NIN/DRK). Based on the model I described previously, the maximum Aspir without any potency-increasing equipment used is 114/3 + 20 = 58 MP, and the minimum is half that, or 29 MP.

I went out to cast Aspir on Stone Eaters (North Gustaberg (S)) and after the seventh cast I obtained an Aspir of 63 MP, which exceeds the stipulated maximum, so the model doesn't hold for 114 dark magic skill. The following are the observed data values (in order observed):

51 44 56 49 25 51 63 53 35 62 62 46 41 32 44

I then cast Drain on the same Stone Eaters with 246 dark magic skill (NIN75/SCH35 with Dark Arts) and obtained the following results (stem-and-leaf plot):

   6 | 49
   7 | 
   8 | 4
   9 | 
  10 | 
  11 | 
  12 | 
  13 | 4445
  14 | 68
  15 | 044
  16 | 46
  17 | 37
  18 | 9
  19 | 4
  20 | 23789
  21 | 79
  22 | 026
  23 | 55
  24 | 277
  25 | 36
  26 | 01346

(The reason I used Drain and not Aspir was that my scholar is only level 35, and Aspir is accessible at level 36. I would prefer to gather data for Aspir because Aspir values are obviously less variable than Drain values.)

Given 246 dark magic skill, the predicted maximum for Drain is 266 and the predicted unresisted minimum is 133 (both without any potency gear or day/weather effects), so the distribution of Drain (as represented by the sample) seems consistent with the model.

In conclusion, if one were to be technical in describing the scope of the model I proposed earlier, I would say the model is (likely) valid for Drain between 246 and 300 dark magic skill. It is valid for Aspir between 269 and 300 dark magic skill. And, finally, it is valid for Drain II between 285 and 300 dark magic skill. What happens in the 100s is just not that relevant. (In case you are wondering what data I am referring to, you'd have to check my old posts on Drain and Aspir).

Drain and Aspir minimum and maximum

Figuring out things that were already figured out years ago

After reviewing all my posts on Drain and Aspir, I finally realized that I had enough information to specify the minimum and maximum unresisted values, as a function of dark magic skill, for both Drain and Aspir, and since the distribution of unresisted values can be considered approximately uniformly distributed (acknowledging flooring effects), the mean Drain and Aspir can also be specified with reasonable certainty.

Of course, this was something that was figured out years ago. This Drain and Aspir summary page (JP) has some interesting things to say about Vampiric Mitts/Boots, Diabolos's Pole, Y's Scythe, and factors other than equipment, day/weather, and magic burst affecting Drain that do not affect Aspir, but I will leave it to those interested to check out that source while I summarize the the minima and maxima for Drain, Aspir, and Drain II, and speculate on those for Aspir II.

All specified extrema are defined for dark magic skill between 0 and 300, and for clarity's sake, factors that increase Drain or Aspir potency are not included in the statements aside from dark magic skill. It should be understood that any of those other factors increase the maximum and minimum by some multiplicative constant, and these constants can be multiplied in succession (generally, the order of multiplication is first the constant for equipment, then that for day/weather, then that for magic burst, with some twists on Drain potency you can look up yourself) with flooring after each multiplication step to obtain the final values of the maximum and minimum.

Maximum and minimum of Drain

The maximum unresisted Drain is

skill + 20,

and the minimum unresisted Drain is

floor(0.5(skill + 20)).

It follows that the mean unresisted Drain is approximately

0.75(skill + 20).

Currently 320 HP is the highest possible Drain return before any other potency-increasing factors are considered.

Each 1-point increase in dark magic skill (up to 300 total skill) increases the maximum Drain by 1 HP. Other potency-enhancing factors can increase the magnitude of this marginal return.

Maximum and minimum of Aspir

The maximum unresisted Aspir is

floor(skill/3 + 20),

and the minimum unresisted Aspir is

floor(0.5floor(skill/3 + 20)).

It follows that the mean unresisted Aspir is approximately

0.75(skill/3 + 20).

Currently 120 MP is the highest possible Aspir return before any other potency-increasing factors are considered.

Each 3-point increase in dark magic skill (up to 300 total skill) increases the maximum Aspir by 1 MP. Other potency-enhancing factors can increase the magnitude of this marginal return.

Maximum and minimum of Drain II

This discussion of the Hirudinea Earring effect (Hirudinea Earring seems to increase the potency of Drain or Aspir by either 2.5% or 3%) also has Drain II data that is consistent with the following expressions for the minimum and maximum of Drain II.

One thing to note is that Drain II has less variability than Drain I. (A dot plot would help show this.) Another thing to note is that the observed minima seem as though they are based on the expression for the maximum of Drain I. Then the minimum unresisted Drain II is

skill + 20.

The maximum unresisted Drain II is

skill + 85.

The mean unresisted Drain II is

skill + 52.5.

Each 1-point increase in dark magic skill (up to 300 total skill) increases both the minimum and maximum Drain II by 1 HP. Other potency-enhancing factors can increase the magnitude of this marginal return.

Currently 385 HP is the highest possible Drain II return before any other potency-increasing factors are considered.

Note that unlike Drain and Aspir, the variability of Drain II values appears not to vary with dark magic skill. Instead, varying skill merely shifts the distribution of unresisted values to the left or the right.

Minimum and maximum of Aspir II?

While I have yet to see anything regarding Aspir II, I wouldn't be surprised to see the minimum be

floor(skill/3 + 20)

and the maximum be

floor(skill/3 + 85),

but this is subject to verification based on others' experience.

Summary

The following table (image) summarizes the maximum, minimum and (approximate) mean unresisted value of Drain, Aspir, and Aspir II as a function of dark magic skill ("capping" at 300 skill) when no other potency-increasing factors are present.



Other potency-increasing factors increase the minimum and maximum by their corresponding multiplicative constant (e.g. that for equipment), with flooring after each multiplication step.

Milestones

Somehow I managed to update sporadically this testament to a lack of priorities for almost one year. To be honest, I wrote foremost for myself so I didn't really bother to spend much time making these entries easily digestible for a wider audience. In particular, I found an excuse to apply some basic probability and statistics to FFXI, the playing of which is also a testament to a lack of priorities and extremely poor taste. On the other hand, I did try to focus my attention on the mechanics of the game so that these entries would have some informative value--at least some people thought so--instead of being just some masturbatory self-chronicle.

I would really like to maintain this conceit, anyway, but there is not much of an empirical mentality among the so-called playerbase to provide persuasive support for any theories that are developed or serendipitously discover non-trivial things about how the game works. Maybe some dead-enders take great pride in running their mouths without putting their bullshit to the test, but I find legitimizing claims with real data and observations to be far more interesting. I thought about turning this blog into a "digest" of sorts to summarize both new and old findings and give credit to the individuals that shed some light on some aspect of game mechanics, but actually it is just too tiresome to comb forums with crap search functions and garbage "intellects" for shiny nuggets of insight. So I will just continue talking about things that interest me enough to commit to blog, even though the posting frequency based on that criterion will be very low.

Anyway, this wasn't supposed to be just some navel-gazing exercise. Instead of making individual posts for the following topics, none of which really warrants standalone status, I decided to throw them all into a single entry.

Thoughts on Aspir

I managed to finish collecting some data to check the effect of Pluto's Staff and magic accuracy +12 on the potency of Aspir and updated the dot plot:

I think it's safe to say that INT or magic accuracy (MAB too, based on tarblm's results) have no role in the potency of Aspir (and by analogy, Drain). Note that I am not bothering with statistics and just arguing informally that none of MAB, macc, and INT increased the maximum in these samples.

As far as accuracy is concerned, that is much more inconvenient to check. The main purpose of my collecting data was to visualize the distribution of Aspir values. It seems here that the range of possible values of unresisted Aspir is fairly wide. The low values of Aspir observed may also be the result of a half-resist, which may cut the unresisted Aspir value in half. Unfortunately, you can see how partially resisted Aspirs are easily confounded with unresisted Aspirs if these ideas are true. Going back to tarblm's data though, the observed Aspirs generally have much greater variability, which could be attributed to partial resists.

Chocobo racing

Haven't talked about this in a while. A few months ago I actually canceled my content ID, but I let myself get pulled back into this pit of mediocrity that is FFXI. Since then I made some effort to maintain more detailed information on my Chocobo Circuit results, particularly whether my chocobo was competing against other PCs.

Not surprisingly, few of my C1 races were uncontested. In fact, 16 of the first 20 after I returned had at least one PC chocobo and 7 of those 16 had 2 PCs. I won only nine of those races, with a pretty abysmal 3-3-1-1 record against only one other PC.

During this time I came across a testimonial of another chocobo racer, also with a SS/B/B/B chocobo, who claimed to have won 67% of his races (128-41-22). This kind of pissed me off because farming chocobucks is extremely boring and here this guy was getting nearly 2 million more gil with the same chocobo profile and similar number of races. I thought perhaps he faced much less competition on his server and that his use of leather saddles may also have been a factor in his great success. But rather than shell out another $25 bucks to SE just for a server transfer, I tried the Sheep Leather Saddle for another month to see if taking the receptivity hit would be worth it in races with one or more other PCs.

My results were even worse with the leather saddle. In 20 races, I went 8-10-0-2 with 11 contested races, and in four of those contested races, an NPC chocobo won (I placed 2nd in all four) and in one case, two NPCs actually placed 1-2. (I finished out of the top 3 in this one.) Even worse, I won only four of the uncontested races, races in which I really "needed" to win to blunt the annoyance of losing chocobucks.

I then went back to the elm saddle and am now nurturing a nine-race winning streak (four contested), by far the longest streak I ever had. During this streak, I also reached the 10-million gil mark in net earnings. I am now going out of my way to race only in "off-hours" time slots to try to get my win rate back to 50%. My current record is 107-78-24-15.

Having reached 10 million in net earnings, I calculated an approximate rate of gil per hour earned in chocobo racing based on the time (one free race per 5 minutes) and gil spent to accumulate enough chocobucks (5,846) to enter the races and the gross earnings. Including this nine-race winning streak, chocobo racing has yielded an average of 74,644 gil per hour. (I admit this figure does not include time spent running to Chocobo Circuit.) Not as efficient as the guy winning 67% of his races, but still a nice reminder that even though chocobuck farming is a real pain in the ass, at least this huge barrier to entry allows chocobo racing to provide a steady income to those who actually put up with it... assuming the C1 races aren't so congested.

Thoughts on the possibility of chain 6 solo on Ebony Puddings without Novio and Manafont

I was extremely disappointed to find out that I had died 957 times between Adventurer "Appreciation" 2008 and A.A. 2009, the majority on black mage. (If I am really appreciated, can I get a Chocobo Wand in fewer than two weeks without being lucky?) I had considered myself more risk-averse over the past year (I did not even do Dynamis at all), but in retrospect this was not true, since you tend to die a lot in pickups, soloing, and poor event linkshells.

The pain of losing experience points on black mage (never mind the bullshit conceit that losing experience points on top of losing the time and resources you wasted is a reasonable penalty) can be blunted somewhat with efficient rate of gain of EXP. But what is considered efficient? From experience, the best I can do is around 8,000 EXP/hour (estimated by the time required to burn off an Emperor Band), and that's when being somewhat vigilant about achieving chain 5 (which is trivial if you are paying attention). Anyone who claims rates of 10,000 EXP/hr solo is full of shit until proven otherwise.

Is it possible to achieve chain 6 solo without Novio, though? By the time chain 5 rolls around I almost always have insufficient MP without Aspir to mount a chain 6 attempt, an indication that my maximum MP is not high enough. Moreover, even three "tier 4" nukes tend to leave a sliver of HP (on off-weather days), meaning that I have to rely on Drain to finish off a pudding. Casting Drain on chain 4 and 5 wastes MP that could be used for chain 6. These factors, along with half-resists and weather effects, conspire to make it really difficult to achieve chain 6. If it is easier than I am pondering, I'd like to know though, but not from shit Morrigan's users who still cast AM II on puddings.

Benevolent Despot

With the advent of Fields of Valor, the prospect of not spawning Despot in a timely fashion is less unpalatable since a training regime awards 1,550 EXP in about an hour of killing 11 placeholders. And maybe those tabs will actually be useful someday. Also, soloing without desirable rewards has grown pretty tiresome. I still have a Fenrir solo (ninja) on the back burner now that Lunar Roar supposedly does not dispel reraise, but I haven't been motivated to do that yet. At the moment, Despot is the only remotely appealing "get out there and kill shit" profit opportunity with a relatively high barrier to entry (actually being able to solo it under 30 minutes to lower the chance of vultures finding you and trying vainly to MPK you).

Though not quite as enjoyable as killing Despot and hardly a consolation prize, watching hapless groups kill Despot can provide some humor to brighten the day. Not a few weeks ago, I had the "pleasure" of witnessing this quartet of PLD/NIN, NIN/DRK, BLM and MNK struggle with Despot for over 40 minutes! Apparently, it didn't occur to these people to shed enmity via teleport in order to expedite the kill. Unfortunately, even inept players win eventually, a testimony to the dominance of the lowest common denominator in FFXI. Throw infinite time and resources at something and you can triumph! (Except for Absolute Virtue.)

Spending time farming gems of the west also has given me an opportunity to "get back" at the MPKing Tarutaru Duo That Shall Not Be Named by dispatching Despot in 22-27 minutes while those oblivious assholes continue to kill placeholders long after I'm gone.

Aspir data and observations

Edit (June 5): some attempts at clarification.

What affects the accuracy of dark magic? Skill only? How about potency? How can we describe the distribution of MP absorbed with Aspir? What data are out there to support the prevailing assertions? Finding old Aspir data sets (from 2006) was easy enough, and I also collected some Aspir data on my own.

This may seem like treading old ground if not for the B.S. I cited earlier in the week. At least there is some data you can cite when making an argument now.

Regarding the 2006 data set, the writer (whom I will call "tarblm" for now) collected Aspir data from King Buffalo (lv 79-82) over six trials. Each trial involved only a single buffalo. The data were collected under one of three configurations, all with a Pluto's Staff:

• "Dark magic skill": +40 dark magic skill (above 269) was the primary factor
• "MAB": +30 MAB from equipment (relative to control) was the primary factor
• Control: 269 dark magic skill
  

The writer also noted the experience gain for each buffalo. The data are presented in a dotplot:


First, the data give the impression that some amount of dark magic skill increases the average MP absorbed, whereas MAB doesn't, confirming previous beliefs. Certainly the maximum Aspirs are higher. Low values of MP drained seem fairly rare and set apart from the rest of the data, so describing the data as coming from a uniform distribution doesn't quite work.

Was "effective" magic accuracy capped on "very tough" buffalo? I would say yes. Otherwise, level difference would have confounded the results. If there is no difference in accuracy across the trials, one could attribute the average to an increase in so-called potency alone.

To try to avoid that uncertainty about capped magic accuracy for my data, I focused my attention on low-level Tunnel Worms and collected 50 Aspir samples for each of the following conditions without a Pluto's Staff:

• Control: 77 INT, 269 dark magic skill
  
• INT: +43 INT above control (120 total)
• Dark magic skill: +22 dark magic skill above control (291 total)

Since the worms are so low in level, I just assumed my effective magic accuracy was capped. This is a major assumption but a reasonable one given magic skill level. (Correction: I earlier used a level correction argument to make this assumption. It has not been established that level difference affects mobs in the same way that it affects PCs.) The data are illustrated in the following dotplot:


Similar to tarblm's data, some amount of dark magic skill seems to increase the average MP absorbed, although the increase is not statistically significant. As magic accuracy was probably capped in this scenario, it is probably safe to say that dark magic skill would increase potency by a statistically significant amount if I had more dark magic skill to pile on. In terms of the distribution of Aspir, it seems to shift the range of possible values to the right.

INT doesn't seem to cause any change in potency. That is not to say INT doesn't affect accuracy in some way! Low values of MP (here, below 50) were infrequent and I assure you they didn't result from capping total MP. A decrease in accuracy may manifest in a higher frequency of low values, resulting in a lower average if not a shift in the range of possible values.

Note that last time I gave an example of a data set (on FFXIclopedia) that showed INT increased the average Aspir, and I said this was a potency-only effect based on the assumption of capped accuracy. Perhaps there are other confounding factors that were not cited.

Also, data overall give an impression that Pluto's Staff affects potency (one, the 2006 data are more variable, Aspirs achieve higher values despite King Buffalo being 62-72 levels higher than Tunnel Worm).

From all this, it seems reasonable to conclude that

• Dark magic affects potency (still not sure about magic accuracy attribute, e.g., from equipment)
  
• MAB does not affect potency
• INT does not affect potency but it seems likely to affect accuracy in some way. Do not confuse accuracy with potency. In a sense, increasing one or the other should still increase the average drained up to a point, but the way each does that is different. An analogy to melee attack and melee accuracy should make sense.
  
• Magic accuracy probably affects accuracy but not potency, but I haven't found nor collected any data to check this.

You may also have noticed that the maxima and sample means in the 2006 data set are larger than those in the 2009 set. I'm pretty sure the difference can be attributed to Pluto's Staff.